Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has undergone a qualitative transformation. The Fear and Greed Index is steadily shifting towards "cautious optimism." This is not just a change in numbers on charts, but a fundamental restructuring of demand, which is becoming increasingly mature and sustainable.
Shift in Direction: From "Short" to "Long"
Over the past week, Bitcoin attempted to consolidate above the $65,000–$66,000 zone, starting from levels around $63,000–$64,000. Although a full-scale breakout did not occur—some players took profits—what is far more important is how this movement unfolded.
The market has ceased to be a hostage to short positions. We are observing that the rally is increasingly fueled by spot demand rather than speculative impulses on futures. Purchase volumes on major exchanges have noticeably increased, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have once again entered a phase of net capital inflows.
The Whale Absorbs Supply
The key signal I highlight from the current dynamics is the behavior of long-term holders. They continue to buy coins from short-term traders, who are still under the influence of the June correction. Such participants tend to sell at their entry points, creating local pressure.
However, the market's ability to absorb these volumes without a significant price decline is an extremely encouraging sign. This indicates that "strong hands" are increasing their positions, and the demand structure is becoming more fundamental rather than situational.
Macro and Regulatory Tailwinds
The shift in sentiment is also supported by external factors. Soft U.S. inflation data, lower expectations for the key interest rate, and a general rise in stock indices create a favorable backdrop for risk assets. Additionally, progress in cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. and Japan adds confidence for institutional players.
Key Risks and Focus for the Coming Week
Despite the positive signals, I maintain a cautious outlook. The main risk is an imbalance between the growth of leverage and actual spot demand. If capital inflows into ETFs slow down and Bitcoin fails to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 range, the market could face sharp volatility.
In the coming week, I will closely monitor three factors: the continuity of ETF inflows, further strengthening of spot demand, and Bitcoin's ability to consolidate above the $64,000 zone.
My expert assessment: The market has indeed become healthier, but a sustainable bullish trend requires not just expectations, but a constant influx of real capital. For now, we are seeing more of a preparatory phase rather than the start of a confident rally.