The cryptocurrency market is seeing a transition to a "neutral or slightly bullish" phase. A key signal is the reduction in pressure from leverage: market participants are cautiously returning to buying, while short-term sellers are losing their aggressiveness. This is confirmed by on-chain analysis data, which indicates a gradual cooling of speculative frenzy.
The dynamics of inflows to centralized exchanges present a mixed picture. Over the past week, the net inflow amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, indicating moderate accumulation. However, looking at the two-week period, we see an outflow of 8,197 BTC. This volatility in flows points to a phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions retain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in the derivatives market is gradually recovering.
Based on current data, the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and further fund flows to exchanges. If these indicators continue to improve, we may see more confident growth.
Additional Stabilization Signals
Analysts from Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a typical sign of an early stabilization stage, where the market is healing wounds, but confidence has not yet fully returned.
A trader under the pseudonym gum drew a parallel with the previous 2022 cycle. According to his observations, the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before sustained growth began. In the current 2026 cycle, a similar period is 147 days. He suggests that the correction will end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, in his estimation, could range from $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is that from July 13 to July 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $75.5 million. This marks the second consecutive positive week for these instruments, indicating renewed interest from institutional investors.
Expert opinion from Cryptalist: The cooling of leverage and the return of buyers are precisely the factors that could trigger a new upward cycle. However, I would not rush to conclusions. The market is still in a zone of uncertainty, and to confirm a bullish trend, we need sustained growth in spot market volumes, not just in derivatives. Keep an eye on the $45,000–$65,000 levels — if Bitcoin forms a bottom there and begins a confident rebound, it will be a signal for the start of a new growth phase.