A shift towards neutral-bullish sentiment has emerged in the cryptocurrency market. Analyzing current on-chain data, I note a distinct decrease in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This is a classic signal that excessive speculative activity is receding, giving way to more measured actions by participants.
The dynamics of flows to centralized exchanges paint a complex picture. Over the past seven days, the net inflow has been approximately 2,196 BTC, yet over a two-week period we still observe an outflow of 8,197 BTC. This multidirectional dynamic is not a sign of a clear trend, but rather an indicator of a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment. The market is digesting previous movements without forming a definitive direction.
Derivatives and Sentiment: A Balance of Power
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but the key point is that excessive optimism and excessive leverage have virtually disappeared. Open interest in derivatives is gradually recovering, indicating a return of capital, but with more restrained expectations. Based on the aggregate of these factors, I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin at approximately 55%. To confirm this forecast, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and further exchange flows.
Absorption of Sales and Historical Parallels
Observations show that aggressive selling, characteristic of a bearish phase, is gradually being absorbed by the market. However, it is important to emphasize: holders are still realizing more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stage of stabilization, not confirmed recovery. Consolidation at such levels is a necessary step before any sustained upward movement.
Interestingly, the current market structure almost mirrors the 2022 cycle. At that time, the weekly bullish divergence lasted 161 days before sustained growth began. In 2026, the analogous period already spans 147 days. If the historical pattern holds, the correction could end with a new local low, which would become the cycle bottom. My analysis suggests this level lies in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
Expert Opinion: The market is going through a phase of "washing out" weak hands and excessive leverage. This is a painful but necessary process for laying the foundation for the next upward trend. The key signal for entry is a shift in exchange flows from net inflow to sustained outflow, combined with an increase in funding rates. For now, we are only seeing the first signs of this shift.