The current crypto market environment shows a transition from an aggressive speculative phase to a more measured accumulation. On-chain analytics data points to a decline in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This creates a "neutral or slightly bullish" backdrop, which is a classic sign of consolidation before a potential upward move.
Analyzing flows to centralized exchanges, we see moderate accumulation activity, but insufficient for a confident rally. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to about 2,196 BTC, yet over the 14-day period, outflows still dominate at 8,197 BTC. This picture is not a clear trend, but rather a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment, where the market is redistributing positions.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but the excessive optimism and over-leverage typical of cycle peaks have significantly weakened. Open interest in derivatives is gradually recovering, indicating a return of professional traders, but without the previous aggression. Based on this data, the probability of a positive scenario for bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. Key indicators for confirming this trend remain funding volumes and the dynamics of exchange flows.
Structural Signals: Absorption of Sales and Historical Parallels
Additional analysis from Bitcoin Vector confirms that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive sales characteristic of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is an early stage of stabilization, not a confirmed recovery. We see that selling pressure is fading, but buyer confidence has not yet fully returned.
Trader gum draws an interesting parallel, comparing the current weekly bullish divergence to the 2022 cycle. Back then, a similar pattern held for 161 days before sustained growth began. In 2026, this period has already lasted 147 days. According to his assessment, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, based on my calculations, could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000. Such a coincidence with history is a strong argument that we are in the final stage of the correction.
My comment: The reduction in leverage and stabilization of flows are fundamentally healthy signals for the market. However, the lack of confident capital inflows into spot ETFs (only $75.5 million over the week) suggests that institutional players are still in a wait-and-see mode. A breakout above the $65,000 level will be a key trigger for a change in sentiment, but until then, the market will remain in a zone of uncertainty.