The Coinbase Premium indicator for Bitcoin is showing an unprecedentedly prolonged negative trend. According to data from the aggregator Coinglass, the indicator has been below the zero mark for 60 consecutive days, which is an absolute anti-record since the metric began being tracked.
The index last recorded positive values on May 19. As of July 18, it stands at -0.05%. The previous record period of continuous negativity lasted 40 days — from January 16 to February 24 of this year.
Coinbase Premium is a key indicator of sentiment among US retail investors. The lower the value, the weaker the interest in the asset from this group of market participants. The current situation signals a deep cooling of demand for Bitcoin among American traders amid general pessimism.
At the time of writing this analysis, Bitcoin is trading at $64,100, up 1.5% over the past day. The first cryptocurrency has partially recovered from the recent crash caused by the stock market decline, particularly in the semiconductor sector.
Notably, from July 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week for these instruments. However, this did not significantly impact the Coinbase Premium, indicating sustained selling pressure in the US market.
My analysis: The prolonged stay of Coinbase Premium in negative territory is a worrying signal for bulls. This indicates not just a temporary decline in interest, but a structural decrease in buying activity from the largest group of investors. Until this indicator reverses upward, sustainable Bitcoin growth above local resistance levels will remain in question.