This week, the cryptocurrency market is showing a significant shift in participant sentiment. While fear dominated not long ago, it is now being replaced by cautious but tangible optimism. My observations indicate that the main drivers of this process have been the easing of macroeconomic statistics and positive signals in the regulation of digital assets.
Bitcoin rose from levels of $63,000–$64,000 during the reporting period, briefly testing the $65,000–$66,000 zone. However, as I expected, this was followed by a correction triggered by profit-taking from short-term speculators. More important than the price movement itself is the change in its nature. The rally is gradually ceasing to be the result of short position liquidations and is increasingly relying on real spot demand.
The spot market is gaining strength
Purchase volumes on the spot market at major exchanges have significantly increased. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are once again recording net inflows, and long-term holders are actively absorbing coins sold by short-term traders. This is a classic sign of capital redistribution from "weak hands" to "strong hands." The market is demonstrating an ability to absorb selling pressure without a significant price decline, which is an encouraging signal of improving market structure.
Nevertheless, I note that spot demand in the U.S. has not fully recovered. Part of the current growth is still fueled by activity in the derivatives market, adding an element of instability. Investors who experienced the June decline are still acting cautiously, taking profits at their entry points.
What to expect from the market next week
Investor sentiment has noticeably improved due to several factors: soft U.S. inflation data, lower expectations for the key interest rate, rising stock markets, and progress in cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. and Japan. Legislative initiatives on market structure and stablecoins are strengthening the long-term arguments in favor of digital assets.
However, I urge caution. The main risk I see is excessive growth in leverage. If it increases without sustainable spot demand, market volatility could spike sharply.
In the coming week, I will be closely monitoring three key factors: continued inflows into ETFs, further strengthening of spot demand, and Bitcoin's ability to hold support around $64,000–$66,000. Confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will require not just anticipation, but real, consistent capital inflows.
My verdict: The market has noticeably strengthened, but a full-fledged bull rally is still far off. We are currently in a phase of consolidation and accumulation. A breakout above $66,000 with volume confirmation will be the first serious signal of a trend change.