A new phase is forming in the cryptocurrency market — neutral with a slight bullish bias. Key signals: a noticeable reduction in leverage and a weakening of short-term seller pressure. This indicates that the market is gradually emerging from the zone of excessive volatility characteristic of aggressive sell-offs.
Analysis of flows to centralized exchanges shows a mixed picture. Over the past week, the net inflow amounted to 2,196 BTC, suggesting moderate accumulation. However, over the 14-day period, the outflow remains at around 8,197 BTC. This dynamic indicates a phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions retain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually rising — a classic sign of returning institutional interest.
Based on current data, the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin is estimated at 55%. To confirm this forecast, it is necessary to closely monitor the funding rate and exchange flow dynamics. If these indicators remain stable, we may see the formation of a sustained upward movement.
Additional Signals from the Market
Analysts note a gradual absorption by the market of aggressive sales that dominated the bearish phase. Nevertheless, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This points to an early stage of stabilization rather than a full recovery. Until investors begin to take profits en masse, the market will remain in a zone of uncertainty.
Interestingly, the current market structure almost exactly mirrors the pattern of the previous cycle. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 lasted 161 days before the start of sustained growth. In 2026, the analogous period is 147 days. This suggests that the correction may end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. The expected range is from $45,000 to $65,000. This scenario is fully consistent with historical data and the logic of market cycles.
My professional assessment: the current situation resembles the "calm before the storm." The reduction in leverage and weakening of sellers are positive signals, but for a full reversal, we need to see a sustained inflow of capital into spot ETFs and an increase in trading volumes. For now, we are in an accumulation phase, and investors should be prepared for possible sharp movements in the coming weeks.