Last week, the cryptocurrency market demonstrated a shift in the dominant sentiment: widespread fear gave way to a more restrained but quite tangible optimism. The key catalyst for this shift was a combination of favorable macroeconomic data and positive signals in the regulatory sphere.
Bitcoin, starting the week in the $63,000–64,000 range, managed to test the $65,000–66,000 zone, after which a correction followed, triggered by profit-taking. However, much more important than the price dynamics itself was the change in market structure. We are observing a fundamental shift: the closing of short positions has been replaced by confident growth, which is increasingly relying on real spot demand rather than speculative leverage.
Capital flow analysis confirms this trend. Spot market purchase volumes on major exchanges have significantly increased. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have again recorded net inflows, and long-term holders continue to actively buy coins from short-term traders. This is a classic sign of capital redistribution in favor of "strong hands," who absorb supply without allowing the price to enter a deep drawdown.
It is important to note that the recovery in U.S. demand is not yet comprehensive. Part of the upward movement is still fueled by activity in the derivatives market, which imposes certain risks. Nevertheless, the market's ability to absorb sales from investors still influenced by the June downturn is an extremely encouraging signal. This indicates a strengthening market structure.
Key Factors and Risks for the Coming Week
Investor sentiment has noticeably improved thanks to soft U.S. inflation data, lower expectations for the key interest rate, and rising stock indices. Additionally, progress in developing laws on market structure and stablecoins in both the U.S. and Japan strengthens the long-term arguments in favor of digital assets.
However, I would urge colleagues to exercise caution. The main risk I see is the imbalance between growing leverage and insufficiently stable spot demand. This factor could trigger a sharp increase in volatility. In the coming week, I will be closely monitoring three key indicators: continued inflows into ETFs, further strengthening of spot demand, and Bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–66,000 zone.
My conclusion: the market has indeed become healthier, but confirmation of a sustainable bullish trend will come not just from a positive mood, but from a constant and steady influx of real capital. For now, we are seeing more signs of a reversal than a confident start to a new rally. Patience and flow analysis are our main tools in the current phase.