Sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has undergone a qualitative shift. The Fear and Greed Index has left the red zone, giving way to cautious but well-founded optimism. My colleagues and I are noting a return of confidence, supported by several fundamental factors: a softening macroeconomic backdrop, positive signals from regulators, and, most importantly, a change in the market's structure itself.
Over the past week, Bitcoin attempted to breach the $65,000–$66,000 zone, starting from levels of $63,000–$64,000. The correction from these highs was expected—a classic profit-taking after a local impulse. However, what is far more important is what was happening "under the hood" of this movement.
The key trend of the week is a structural transformation in demand. We are observing how the rally is increasingly less reliant on speculative short covering and more on genuine spot demand. Purchase volumes on major exchanges have significantly increased. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded steady inflows, and long-term holders continue to confidently absorb supply from short-term traders.
Spot Demand vs. Leverage
My analysis confirms: stronger market participants (institutions and "whales") are actively consolidating coins. Notably, the market is successfully digesting selling pressure from those who incurred losses during the June crash. These investors are still acting under the influence of psychological trauma and tend to lock in losses at the slightest rebound. The fact that the price is not only avoiding a collapse but also holding support is an extremely encouraging signal.
However, I consider it necessary to emphasize: the recovery of spot demand in the U.S. is not yet complete. Part of the current growth is still fueled by activity in the derivatives market, which carries risks. An increase in leverage without a solid spot foundation is a recipe for heightened volatility.
Macro and Regulation: Tailwinds
Investor sentiment has notably improved thanks to soft U.S. inflation data, lowered expectations for the key interest rate, and a general rise in stock markets. Added to this is optimism surrounding cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. and Japan. Progress on laws regarding market structure and stablecoins strengthens the long-term case for digital assets, reducing regulatory uncertainty.
What's Next? Three Focus Points
In the coming week, I will be closely monitoring three factors. First, the continuation of inflows into ETFs. Second, the further strengthening of spot demand and Bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 zone. Third, the dynamics of leverage. Until a steady influx of capital becomes constant rather than a one-off event, we cannot speak of a confirmed sustainable bullish trend.
My professional assessment: the market has indeed become healthier than a week ago. The shift from fear to cautious optimism is not just a change in sentiment but a reflection of real asset accumulation by strong hands. However, euphoria is premature. Confirmation of a trend change will come not from a single surge but from capital consolidation in the current level zone. Until then, we remain vigilant and watch the volumes.