After nine months of continuous pressure, the Bitcoin market appears to be entering the final stage of the bear cycle. A corresponding signal has been recorded in on-chain data: the crossover of the cost bases of short-term and long-term holders indicates that the bottom may be near.
What the indicator shows
The analysis is based on the crossover of the average purchase price of two groups of participants. When the cost basis of short-term holders—those who have held BTC for less than 155 days—drops below the basis of long-term investors (more than 155 days), the market enters the final phase of the bearish trend. To confirm the signal, this condition must persist for at least three days.
Currently, the condition has been met. The cost basis of short-term holders has fallen from $112,500 to approximately $69,000, while active long-term holders (coins older than 7 years are excluded from the calculation for data purity) hold positions at higher levels.
Repetition of cyclical patterns
It is important to understand that the current picture is not random. The Bitcoin market clearly replicates behavior observed in previous cycles. Notably, even the influx of institutional investors has not changed this dynamic: the composition of holders has remained the same, and with it, their behavioral patterns.
Short-term players are gradually buying the dips, thereby lowering their average entry price until it falls below the level of long-term "whales." This is a classic sign that the market is "shaking out" weak hands and preparing for a reversal.
Expert opinion
This signal should not be perceived as an immediate upward spike. It does not guarantee that the bottom has been reached right now. Rather, it indicates that we have entered a zone where a strategy of gradual accumulation (DCA) becomes most justified. Historically, it is precisely during such periods that the foundations for subsequent bull rallies were laid.