The Bitcoin market is showing signs of stabilization after a period of high volatility. My analysis indicates that the current environment is characterized by reduced leverage and easing short-term selling pressure, forming a "neutral or slightly bullish" trend. This is confirmed by on-chain metrics data that I have thoroughly examined.
Inflow Dynamics and Liquidity
Fund flows to centralized exchanges point to moderate but still insufficient accumulation of the asset. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, outflows remained at around 8,197 BTC. This mixed picture suggests a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions still hold a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have weakened. Open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, indicating a return of institutional interest.
Likelihood of a Bullish Scenario
Based on available data, I estimate the probability of a positive development for the Bitcoin market at roughly 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flows. If buyers continue to increase activity, we may see sustained upward momentum.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
My colleagues at Bitcoin Vector note that aggressive selling, typical of a bearish phase, is gradually being absorbed by the market. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits, which is a sign of an early stabilization stage rather than confirmed recovery. Interestingly, a trader under the pseudonym gum compares the current structure to the previous cycle. He points out that the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026, a similar period has lasted 147 days. According to his version, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom, likely in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
Inflows into ETFs
An additional positive signal is the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, they saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This indicates renewed interest from institutional investors.
My expert opinion: The market is at a critical point. Cooling leverage and easing selling pressure create conditions for a reversal, but the lack of a clear trend requires caution. I recommend investors focus on monitoring exchange flows and funding levels—these metrics will be key indicators for confirming a bullish scenario. The current phase resembles preparation for a significant move, but its direction remains uncertain.