The Bitcoin market is approaching a turning point. According to my analysis of on-chain data, the bear cycle, which has been ongoing for nine months, is showing signs of completion. A corresponding signal has just been triggered, indicating a transition into the final phase.
The key indicator I am closely monitoring is based on the crossover of the cost bases of short-term and long-term holders. This refers to the moment when the average purchase price for investors holding BTC for less than six months drops below the same metric for those holding coins longer. Importantly, coins that have not moved for more than seven years have been excluded from the calculation of the long-term holder cost base to eliminate "dead" or lost wallets and obtain a more accurate picture of economically active supply.
As I see on the charts, over the past few months, the short-term holder cost base has decreased from $112,500 to $69,000. This suggests that new buyers are gradually accumulating Bitcoin at increasingly lower prices, and their average entry price has already fallen below the level of "old blood." It is this crossover that serves as the signal that has historically preceded the end of bear markets.
What does this mean for investors?
It is important to understand: the activation of this indicator does not mean that the bottom has been reached right now and the market will immediately reverse upward. It is a signal of entering the final phase of the cycle. In my opinion, it is during such periods that the strategy of gradual purchases (DCA) is most effective. The market may continue to consolidate for some time or even show local lows, but fundamental on-chain metrics indicate that "blood in the streets" is giving way to accumulation.
Notably, even the arrival of institutional players, as I note, has not changed the cyclical nature of market participant behavior. The structure of holders and their habits remain the same: short-term speculators capitulate, while long-term investors patiently wait. The current cycle repeats patterns from past years, which gives me reason to believe that we are on the verge of a new bull rally, but the market must first go through a final stage of cleansing.
My conclusion: The Bitcoin bear market is exhausting its potential. The holder cost base crossover signal is one of the most reliable indicators in my arsenal. Patient investors who start or continue a DCA strategy in the coming weeks and months are likely to be rewarded in the next cycle. However, I advise staying calm and not trying to "catch the bottom"—it is better to spread entries over time.