A shift in sentiment is observed in the cryptocurrency market: overheated leverage is cooling down, and short-term selling pressure is easing. According to my data, the current phase is characterized as "neutral with a slightly bullish bias." This is confirmed by a decline in leverage and a reduction in aggressive selling, indicating a gradual restoration of balance between supply and demand.
Flow Dynamics and Liquidity
Analysis of inflows to centralized exchanges shows moderate accumulation of the asset. Over the past week, net inflow amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over 14 days, outflow remained at around 8,197 BTC. This mixed dynamic points to a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than a clear trend. Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually rising, which may signal the return of institutional players.
Based on available data, I estimate the probability of a positive development for the Bitcoin market at approximately 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flows. If these indicators continue to improve, we may see a sustained upward trend.
Structural Signals and Cyclicality
Additional observations confirm that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is typical of the early stage of stabilization, when the market is seeking a bottom but is not yet ready for a confident recovery.
Interestingly, the current market structure resembles the previous cycle. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 lasted 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. If history repeats itself, the correction may end with a new local low that becomes the cycle's bottom. According to my estimates, this level could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
Additionally, from July 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This indicates renewed interest from institutional investors, which is a positive signal for the market.
Expert opinion: The cooling of leverage and the gradual return of buyers are important but not definitive signals. The market is still in a consolidation phase, and to confirm a reversal, we need to see sustained volume growth and a breakout of key resistance levels. Without this, any movement could prove false.