The digital asset market is gradually emerging from a phase of widespread fear. After a period of prolonged uncertainty and corrections, cautious optimism is replacing panic. Key drivers of this shift include easing macroeconomic data and positive signals in the regulatory sphere, which are gradually restoring confidence among market participants.
Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin showed confident growth, rising from the $63,000–$64,000 range and testing the resistance zone around $65,000–$66,000. However, a consolidation above this level did not occur—a pullback followed, triggered by profit-taking from short-term speculators.
Market Structure Shift: From Shorts to Spot
More important than the price movement itself is the change in its nature. Activity in the derivatives market has shifted: whereas previously we observed mass liquidation of short positions, the upward momentum is now increasingly relying on real spot demand. Purchase volumes on major exchanges have noticeably increased, and U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have once again recorded net capital inflows.
The behavior of long-term holders is particularly telling. They continue to actively accumulate coins, buying up supply from short-term traders. This is a classic sign that "strong hands" are absorbing liquidity, creating a solid floor for the market. The market's ability to absorb sales without a deep drawdown is an extremely encouraging signal, indicating an improvement in its structure.
Macro and Regulatory Backdrop: A Tailwind
Investor sentiment has notably improved due to a number of external factors. Soft U.S. inflation data has lowered expectations for further interest rate hikes, supporting stock markets and creating a positive backdrop for risk assets. Additionally, progress in cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. and Japan strengthens the long-term case for digital assets.
However, euphoria would be premature. The main risk I see is the rise in leverage. An increase in futures trading volumes without sustainable spot demand could amplify volatility and trigger sharp movements.
Key Indicators for the Upcoming Week
In the coming week, attention should focus on three factors. First, continued inflows into spot ETFs. Second, further strengthening of spot demand—this, rather than derivatives, should be the foundation for sustainable growth. Third, Bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 range. A loss of this level would be a worrying signal.
My conclusion: the market has notably improved, but confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will come not from mere anticipation, but from a constant inflow of real capital. For now, we are only seeing the first signs of a sentiment shift, and caution remains the best strategy.