The current crypto market environment shows a transition into a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" dynamics. A key signal is a significant reduction in leverage, accompanied by a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This indicates that the market is gradually clearing out excess speculative capital, which historically serves as a precursor to more sustainable growth.
Flow and Liquidity Analysis
Data on Bitcoin movement to centralized exchanges paints a mixed but encouraging picture. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, indicating moderate accumulation. However, over a two-week period, we observe a net outflow of around 8,197 BTC. This dynamic is typical of a volatile liquidity adjustment phase, where the market has not yet formed a clear trend but is moving away from aggressive selling.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but open interest (OI) indicators in derivatives are gradually recovering. Meanwhile, the excessive optimism and overheated leverage that previously threatened cascading liquidations have noticeably weakened. I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin at roughly 55%. To confirm this forecast, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange inflow volumes—these metrics will serve as triggers for the next significant move.
Stabilization or False Signal?
The process of absorbing aggressive sales characteristic of a bearish phase continues. Nevertheless, holders are still realizing more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stabilization stage, not confirmed recovery. The market is digesting sales, but bullish confidence has not yet fully returned.
Interestingly, the current price structure almost mirrors the pattern of the previous cycle. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 lasted 161 days before a sustained rally began. In 2026, a similar period has already reached 147 days. If the historical analogy holds, the correction should conclude with the formation of a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. I believe this level lies in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal comes from the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, they recorded a net inflow of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. Institutional interest remains steady, providing a solid foundation for a potential reversal.
My expert opinion: The market is undergoing a necessary phase of consolidation and cleansing of overheated leverage. Current data suggests that the bottom is likely near, but a confident entry into a long position requires confirmation in the form of sustained growth in buying volumes and a reduction in holder losses. The next few weeks will be critical.