The cryptocurrency market is recording a transition to a "neutral or slightly bullish" phase. A key indicator — declining leverage — suggests that excessive speculative activity is fading, making way for a more measured approach. At the same time, short-term selling pressure is easing, creating conditions for a reversal.
My observations of flows to centralized exchanges confirm this picture: accumulation of the asset is ongoing, but at a moderate pace. Over the past week, the net inflow of bitcoin amounted to about 2,196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, the outflow remains at approximately 8,197 BTC. This mixed dynamic is a typical sign of a volatile liquidity adjustment phase, rather than a clearly defined trend. Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but without the previous overheating: excessive optimism and leverage have noticeably weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in the derivatives market is gradually recovering.
Based on this data, I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for bitcoin at roughly 55%. To confirm this forecast, it is necessary to closely monitor the funding rate and further fund flows to exchanges.
Additional Signals: Absorption of Sales and Cyclicality
Analysts at Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive sales characteristic of the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This points to an early stage of stabilization, rather than a full recovery.
A trader under the pseudonym gum drew a parallel with the previous cycle. According to his data, in 2022, the weekly bullish divergence held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth. In 2026, a similar period has been lasting for 147 days. He suggests that the correction will end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, in his estimation, lies in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
Additional confirmation of the positive backdrop comes from the dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, they attracted a net $75.5 million, closing the second consecutive positive week.
My expert conclusion: The combination of signals — declining leverage, weakening sellers, and inflows into ETFs — forms a cautiously bullish sentiment. However, investors should be patient: the market is still in a consolidation phase, and confident growth will require confirmation in the form of a sustained increase in accumulation volumes.