Last week, the cryptocurrency market showed a significant shift in participant sentiment. While panic and short position closures dominated not long ago, we are now seeing a return of confidence, backed by real spot market buying. This is not just a speculative bounce, but a deeper structural realignment.
Bitcoin rose from the $63,000–$64,000 area over the week, testing the $65,000–$66,000 zone. The subsequent profit-taking was expected, but the key point is not the price movement itself, but its nature. Flow analysis shows that spot demand on major exchanges has increased significantly. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are once again recording net inflows, and long-term holders ("whales") are actively absorbing coins sold by short-term speculators. This is a classic sign of capital redistribution from "weak hands" to "strong hands."
It is important to note that the market is successfully absorbing selling pressure from investors still influenced by the June decline and prone to locking in losses at the slightest bounce. The market's ability to digest this volume without a significant drawdown is an extremely positive signal, indicating strengthening fundamental support.
What is driving optimism and where are the risks hidden?
The improvement in sentiment is supported by a whole range of macroeconomic and regulatory factors. Soft U.S. inflation data lowers expectations for further monetary policy tightening, which is positive for all risk assets. Additionally, progress on market structure and stablecoin legislation in the U.S. and Japan strengthens long-term narratives in favor of digital assets.
However, I would urge cautious optimism. The main risk I see is excessive growth in leverage. If current demand is fueled primarily by borrowed funds rather than real spot purchases, this could lead to increased volatility and sharp corrections. Next week, it is critically important to monitor three factors: continued ETF inflows, further strengthening of spot demand, and Bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 range.
My conclusion: the market has indeed moved from a "fear" stage to a "hope" stage, but a full-fledged "bull" trend is still far off. Sustainable growth will be confirmed not by expectations, but by a constant inflow of real capital, which we are currently seeing only fragmentarily.