The crypto market is seeing a transition to a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" consolidation. Key on-chain indicators point to a reduction in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This is an important signal that could foreshadow a shift in sentiment after a period of uncertainty.
Analysis of flows to centralized exchanges shows moderate, but still insufficient, accumulation of the asset. Over the past week, net inflow amounted to about 2,196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, outflow reached 8,197 BTC. This dynamic indicates a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions retain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and excessive leverage have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually recovering.
Based on current data, the probability of a positive scenario for bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. To confirm upward momentum, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flow dynamics — these are key triggers for further movement.
Additional Observations
Analysts note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits, indicating an early stage of stabilization rather than a confident recovery.
An interesting parallel with the previous cycle: the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth, while in 2026, a similar period lasts 147 days. According to this model, the correction could end with a new local low, which would become the cycle bottom. The expected range is from $45,000 to $65,000.
It is also worth noting that from July 13 to July 17, spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This is an additional signal in favor of a gradual return of institutional interest.
Expert opinion: The current situation resembles an accumulation phase before a major move. The cooling of leverage reduces the risk of cascading liquidations, and the return of buyers in the spot market creates a foundation for growth. However, to confirm the trend, it is necessary to wait for a breakout of key resistance levels and sustained capital inflow.