A shift in sentiment is observed in the cryptocurrency market: excessive leverage is fading, and buyers are gradually returning. Current dynamics point to a "neutral or slightly bullish" trend, indicating a reduction in short-term selling pressure and a stabilization of the situation.
Analysis of flows to centralized exchanges shows moderate accumulation of the asset, though it is not yet sufficient to form a sustained upward trend. Over the past week, net inflow amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over the last 14 days, outflow remained at around 8,197 BTC. This mixed picture points to a phase of volatile liquidity adjustment rather than a clear trend.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, which may signal a recovery in market participant confidence. Based on this data, the probability of a positive development for the Bitcoin market is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to monitor funding rates and exchange inflows.
Structural Signals and Historical Parallels
Additional observations confirm that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of a bearish phase. However, holders are still realizing more losses than profits, indicating an early stage of stabilization rather than a full recovery.
Interestingly, the current market structure resembles the previous cycle. A weekly bullish divergence in 2022 persisted for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026, a similar period lasted 147 days. According to forecasts, the correction should conclude with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level could range from $45,000 to $65,000.
From July 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This is an additional signal of returning institutional interest.
My opinion: The cooling of leverage and the gradual return of buyers are positive signals, but the market has not yet exited the phase of uncertainty. To confirm a bullish scenario, sustained growth in volumes and a reduction in holder losses are necessary. For now, this is merely an early stage of stabilization, and investors should remain cautious.