An interesting picture is forming in the Bitcoin market: leverage is declining, and aggressive sellers are gradually losing influence. I have carefully examined the on-chain data, and the current dynamics indicate that we are entering a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" consolidation. This is not explosive growth, but a clear improvement in market structure.
Flows to centralized exchanges are sending mixed signals. Over the past week, the net inflow was about 2,196 BTC, suggesting moderate accumulation. However, over the 14-day period, we still see an outflow of 8,197 BTC. This pattern is typical of a liquidity adjustment phase, where the market is seeking a new balance, rather than forming a clear trend. Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but the excessive optimism and over-leverage characteristic of peaks have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually recovering.
Early Stabilization Signals
Observations from other analysts confirm this picture. Data from Bitcoin Vector shows that the market is gradually absorbing aggressive selling typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stabilization stage, where a bottom has formed, but confidence in a reversal has not yet returned.
Cyclical Pattern and Potential Bottom
Of particular note is the comparison with the previous cycle. In 2022, the weekly bullish divergence held for 161 days before sustained growth began. In 2026, a similar period has lasted 147 days. According to this model, the correction may end with a new local low, which will become the cycle's bottom. I estimate this range at $45,000 – $65,000. In my view, confirmation of the trend will come from the funding rate and further exchange flows.
My expert conclusion: The market is going through a phase of clearing excess leverage, which historically has preceded sustained growth. I estimate the probability of a positive scenario at approximately 55%. The key signal for entry is the emergence of sustained capital inflows into spot ETFs and a reduction in holder losses.