This week, the cryptocurrency market is showing a striking shift in sentiment — from overwhelming fear to cautious yet tangible optimism. My analysis of on-chain data and the macroeconomic backdrop confirms that investors are beginning to exit their defensive positions, with the recovery in spot demand playing a key role.
Over the past seven days, Bitcoin has surged from the $63,000–$64,000 levels, tested the $65,000–$66,000 zone, and after a brief profit-taking period, pulled back. However, more important than the price movement itself is its fundamental nature. We are witnessing a turning point: the rally is increasingly less reliant on short position liquidations and more on genuine spot market buying.
Demand is growing, market structure is strengthening
Buying volumes on major exchanges have significantly increased. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are once again recording net inflows, and long-term holders are actively absorbing coins being offloaded by short-term traders. This is a classic redistribution signal: "strong hands" are taking supply from weak ones.
Notably, the market is successfully absorbing selling pressure from those affected by the June crash. These participants are still acting under the influence of losses and tend to lock in losses at their entry points. The fact that Bitcoin is not showing a significant drawdown amid this pressure is an extremely encouraging sign, pointing to an improving market structure.
Macro backdrop and regulatory winds
Investor sentiment is being fueled by several positive factors simultaneously. Soft U.S. inflation data is lowering expectations for further monetary policy tightening. Rising stock indices are adding risk appetite. And progress in cryptocurrency regulation — both in the U.S. and Japan — is building long-term arguments in favor of digital assets.
Legislative initiatives on market structure and stablecoins are not just news, but a foundation for institutional adoption. However, I urge maintaining a sober perspective: optimism remains cautious for now.
Key risks and what to watch next week
The main threat I see is the growth of leverage without sustained support from spot demand. Such dynamics could multiply volatility and trigger sharp movements.
In the coming week, I will be closely monitoring three factors: whether ETF inflows continue, whether spot demand can hold its ground, and whether Bitcoin can consolidate above the support range of $64,000–$66,000.
My conclusion: The market has indeed become healthier, but confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will come not just from anticipation, but from constant, real capital inflows. For now, we are seeing the first signs — this is encouraging, but it does not guarantee an immediate assault on new highs.