The current cryptocurrency market environment shows a transition to a neutral or mildly bullish phase. A key indicator of this process is the reduction in leverage, accompanied by a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This is confirmed by on-chain analysis data, where we see that the dynamics of inflows to centralized exchanges indicate moderate, though not sufficiently active, accumulation of the asset.
Over the past week, the net inflow of bitcoin to exchanges amounted to about 2,196 BTC, while over the 14-day period, the outflow remained at approximately 8,197 BTC. This mixed picture indicates a phase of volatile liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and excessive leverage have noticeably weakened. At the same time, open interest in the derivatives market is showing gradual growth.
Based on the available data, I estimate the probability of a positive development for bitcoin at approximately 55%. To confirm this trend, it is crucial to monitor the funding rate and exchange flows. These indicators will be decisive in the coming weeks.
Additional Signals from the Market
Analysts note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This situation is typical of the early stage of stabilization but is not yet a confirmed recovery.
Interestingly, the current market structure resembles the previous cycle. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth, and in 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. In my assessment, the correction may end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level is likely to be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is that from July 13 to 17, spot bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This indicates a resurgence of institutional interest, which could act as a catalyst for further growth.
Expert Opinion: The cooling of leverage is a healthy sign for the market, reducing the risks of cascading liquidations. However, for a full trend reversal, buyers need to move from moderate accumulation to aggressive buying. For now, we are in a zone of uncertainty, and the key level for confirming the bullish scenario will be a breakout above $70,000 with sustained volume.