An interesting picture is forming in the cryptocurrency market: after a period of high volatility and aggressive selling, we are observing a gradual cooling of leverage and a weakening of selling pressure. Current dynamics indicate that the market is entering a phase of "neutral or slightly bullish" consolidation, which is confirmed by on-chain analysis data.
A key indicator — flows to centralized exchanges — shows mixed signals. Over the past week, net inflow amounted to about 2196 BTC, indicating moderate accumulation. However, looking at the two-week period, outflow remains at approximately 8197 BTC. This pattern is typical of a liquidity adjustment phase, when the market is seeking a new equilibrium, rather than forming a clear trend.
It is important to note that long positions still maintain a slight advantage, but the excessive optimism and over-leverage characteristic of peak stages have already weakened. Open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, indicating the return of cautious buyers, but without the previous aggression.
Probability and Scenarios
Based on current data, the probability of a positive development for Bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this scenario, it is necessary to monitor two key factors: the funding rate and the stability of exchange flows. If these indicators continue to show stability, we may see a bottom formation.
Analysts at Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling that dominated the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a typical sign of an early stabilization stage, rather than confirmed recovery.
An interesting parallel was discovered by a trader under the pseudonym gum: the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in the current 2026 cycle, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. According to his assessment, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal comes from the dynamics of spot Bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, they saw a net inflow of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This confirms institutional investor interest at current levels.
My comment: The cooling of leverage and the decline in aggressive selling are the first signs of a healthy correction. However, I would not rush to conclusions about a trend reversal. The market is still in a phase of uncertainty, and confirming a bullish scenario requires sustained growth in accumulation volumes and a return of confidence among long-term holders. The $45,000–$65,000 range looks like a realistic zone for bottom formation, but without a macroeconomic catalyst, we could linger there longer than expected.