The current hype around artificial intelligence has already surpassed the infamous dot-com bubble in scale. As an independent analyst, I have conducted a detailed comparison of the two eras, and the conclusions are, frankly, alarming. The parallels between the internet company boom of the late 1990s and today's AI race are becoming increasingly obvious, but with one critical difference: the current bubble is significantly larger and more dangerous in its structure.
Let's start with the numbers. In the dot-com era (1999–2001), total infrastructure spending amounted to about $500 billion. Today, in the AI era (2025–2026), this figure has reached an astronomical $5.8 trillion — an increase of more than 11 times. The size of the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) is also incomparable: $4 billion then versus $86 billion now. But the most frightening indicator is the valuation of unprofitable companies. The largest unprofitable company of the dot-com era was worth about $100 billion. Today's equivalent is valued at $965 billion. This is not just growth; it is exponential inflation.
Symptoms of Overheating: From Nvidia to Credit Schemes
The market is showing classic signs of overheating. Unprofitable companies are going public at the peak of the hype. A telling example: SpaceX went into the red just a month after the largest IPO in market history. Another alarming signal is the buyer financing scheme. Nvidia launched a program to finance its own customers. In the late 1990s, Lucent and Nortel did exactly the same thing, which ended in some of the largest bankruptcies in U.S. history. When a chip manufacturer starts subsidizing demand for its products, it is a sure sign that real demand no longer meets expectations.
Why the Current Bubble is More Dangerous
The main danger of the current AI bubble lies in its multi-layered structure. The dot-com bubble mainly consisted of stocks. The current one includes private credit, project bonds, and even insurance company money. All these funds are flowing into data center infrastructure. Blue Owl has frozen investor withdrawals and is simultaneously financing 80% of Meta's $250 billion campus in Louisiana. Oracle's rating has been downgraded to nearly "junk": half of its order portfolio is tied to OpenAI. Anthropic has $90 billion in capacity lease obligations with zero profit before its IPO.
My conclusion as an analyst: AI is a real technology, like the internet in 1999. But the question is not about the technology, but about the price. Do companies justify the amounts investors are paying for them? The answer is likely to be negative. Public reports in the coming quarters could become a catalyst for a serious correction. In the cryptocurrency market, we are already accustomed to volatility, but the collapse of the AI bubble could affect all asset classes, including digital ones. Be prepared.