Sentiment in the digital asset market has undergone a qualitative shift. After a period dominated by fear, the investor confidence index is beginning to recover steadily. Key drivers of this process include a softening macroeconomic backdrop and positive signals from regulators.
Bitcoin tests the $65,000 zone: the nature of the movement has changed
Over the past week, bitcoin has shown an upward trend, rising from levels of $63,000–$64,000 and testing the $65,000–$66,000 zone. The subsequent correction was triggered by profit-taking from short-term speculators, which is a completely natural market process.
However, far more significant than the price movement itself is the change in its structure. Analysis of order flows indicates that the rally is increasingly less reliant on short position closures and more on genuine spot demand. Purchase volumes on major exchanges have noticeably increased, and inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have resumed. Concurrently, long-term holders continue to actively accumulate coins, buying up supply from short-term traders.
This points to a classic process of capital redistribution: "strong hands" absorbing the supply of "weak hands." It is important to note that spot demand in the U.S. has not yet fully recovered, and part of the growth is still fueled by activity in the derivatives market. However, the market's very ability to absorb sales without a deep drawdown is an extremely encouraging signal, indicating an improvement in market structure.
Macroeconomic backdrop and regulatory hopes
This shift in sentiment would not have been possible without a favorable external backdrop. Soft U.S. inflation data, lower expectations for the Fed's key rate, and rising stock indices have created a fertile environment for risk assets. An additional catalyst has been optimism around regulatory clarity: progress in developing market structure and stablecoin laws in the U.S. and Japan strengthens long-term arguments for the legitimization of digital assets.
Nevertheless, I urge colleagues to maintain cautious optimism. The main risk I see is excessive growth in leverage. An increase in open interest volumes without support from sustainable spot demand could trigger a sharp rise in volatility. The market has improved noticeably, but confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will come precisely from a steady inflow of capital, not just expectations.
My analysis: The current configuration resembles an accumulation phase before a major move. Key indicators to watch in the coming week will be: continued inflows into ETFs, further strengthening of spot demand, and bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 zone. These factors will determine whether the market can transition from cautious optimism to confident growth.