The cryptocurrency market is seeing a shift toward neutral-bullish dynamics. A key indicator—the leverage level—has noticeably declined, and short-term selling pressure is easing. This suggests that the market is gradually emerging from a phase of aggressive correction.
Analysis of flows to centralized exchanges shows moderate accumulation, though still insufficient for a confident rally. Over the past week, net inflows amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over a 14-day period, outflows remain at around 8,197 BTC. This picture points to a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend.
Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and overleveraging have weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, indicating a return of institutional interest without undue euphoria. Based on current data, the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and the dynamics of exchange flows.
Other Observations: Stabilization or False Signal?
Analysts from Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a typical sign of an early stabilization stage, not confirmed recovery.
An interesting comparison is made by a trader under the pseudonym gum. He points out that the current weekly bullish divergence in 2026 has lasted 147 days, whereas in 2022, a similar period lasted 161 days before sustained growth began. According to his assessment, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, in his view, lies in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
In addition, from July 13 to 17, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This confirms the return of institutional capital, albeit with caution.
My comment: The decline in leverage and easing of selling pressure are positive signals, but the market is still in a zone of uncertainty. For a full-fledged bullish reversal, sustained capital inflows and rising trading volumes are needed. For now, we are observing a consolidation phase that could last several more weeks. Investors should exercise caution and avoid succumbing to short-term impulses.