The cryptocurrency market is seeing a shift toward a neutral-bullish scenario. Key metrics indicate a significant reduction in leverage and a weakening of short-term selling pressure. This is not just a correction — it is a structural change in sentiment that requires close analysis.
The dynamics of inflows to centralized exchanges show moderate but still insufficient accumulation of the asset. Over the past week, net inflow amounted to about 2196 BTC, while over the last 14 days, outflow remains at approximately 8197 BTC. This picture indicates a phase of volatile liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions retain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have noticeably weakened. Open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, pointing to a recovery of interest without overheating.
Probability of a Bullish Scenario and Signs of Stabilization
Based on current data, the probability of a positive development for the bitcoin market is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flows. Meanwhile, analysts at Bitcoin Vector note that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling typical of a bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits — a typical sign of an early stabilization stage rather than a full recovery.
Interestingly, a trader under the pseudonym gum draws parallels with the previous cycle. According to his observations, the weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before sustained growth began, while in 2026 a similar period has already lasted 147 days. He suggests that the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, in his view, could range from $45,000 to $65,000.
An additional positive signal is the dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs: from July 13 to 17, they saw net inflows of $75.5 million, marking the second consecutive positive week. This confirms the interest of institutional investors, who act more cautiously than retail traders.
My expert commentary: The cooling of leverage is a healthy sign for a market that has long suffered from overheating. However, a 55% probability of a bullish scenario is more "cautious optimism" than a confident trend. I would recommend traders not to rush into aggressive entries but to wait for confirmation in the form of stable volume growth and reduced volatility. The $45,000–$65,000 range as a cycle bottom looks realistic, but achieving it may require several more weeks of consolidation.