A classic precondition for a supply deficit is forming in the Ethereum market, and it appears far more fundamental than in previous cycles. An on-chain data analysis conducted by CryptoQuant experts reveals a pronounced imbalance: on one hand, stablecoins are rapidly accumulating on exchanges, while on the other, the free supply of ETH itself is steadily shrinking.
Stablecoins as "Dry Powder" and ETH Outflows
A key indicator is the inflow of stablecoins to Binance. Over the past 90 days, this metric has surged by 506% relative to the average, reaching a volume of over $72 million per day. This represents a colossal amount of "dry powder"—capital ready to enter the market at any moment. However, in contrast, Ethereum itself is "quietly leaving" the exchange: over the past two weeks, ETH outflows have consistently remained in negative territory.
Staking Removes Coins from the Market
Simultaneously, the share of coins locked in staking is growing. The metric has reached a new all-time high of 33.48%. This means that more than a third of the entire circulating supply of ETH has been removed from liquid circulation. The free supply available for trading is contracting, while purchasing power in the form of stablecoins is accumulating.
Experts note that the current configuration—stablecoin accumulation against a backdrop of ETH outflows and record staking—is forming at a relatively stable price of around $1840. This does not resemble speculative overheating. On the contrary, we are seeing patient positioning by large players, who are laying the groundwork for a directional move.
Difference from Previous Cycles
The key difference between the current phase and previous ones is the change in driver. Previously, price growth was fueled by aggressive leverage. Now, judging by the dynamics of funding rates on Binance, which have cooled by 31% over the week, the market is preparing for a move in the spot market, rather than futures speculation. This points to a more mature and fundamental nature of accumulation.
Commentary from Cryptalist analyst: I see in this picture signs of a classic "supply squeeze." When a huge reserve of stablecoins on the exchange meets a dwindling liquid supply of ETH, historically this has preceded periods of high price volatility. The question is only the trigger that will cause this accumulated capital to flood into the market. If this happens, the imbalance could provoke a sharp upward move. However, to confirm a bullish scenario, a sustained price shift above the current range is necessary.