The current market environment for bitcoin shows a transition from an aggressive speculative phase to a more measured one. The reduction in leverage and the easing of short-term selling pressure indicate that the market is going through a stage of a "neutral or slightly bullish" trend. This is a classic sign of consolidation before a potential impulse.
Analysis of flows to centralized exchanges confirms this picture. Over the past week, the net inflow amounted to about 2196 BTC, signaling moderate accumulation. However, over the 14-day period, the outflow remains at approximately 8197 BTC. This multidirectional dynamic is a sure sign of a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment, rather than a clear trend. The market is seeking equilibrium, and the "bulls" are not yet ready for a decisive assault.
Long positions retain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and excessive leverage have noticeably weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in derivatives is gradually increasing, indicating a return of institutional interest, but without the previous euphoria. Based on this data, I estimate the probability of a positive scenario for bitcoin at about 55%. To confirm this trend, it is critically important to monitor funding volumes and exchange flows.
Structural Signals of Stabilization
Additional observations confirm that the market is gradually absorbing the aggressive selling characteristic of the bearish phase. However, holders are still recording more losses than profits. This is a classic sign of an early stage of stabilization, when "smart money" begins to accumulate positions while retail investors panic.
Comparing the current cycle with the previous one paints an even more interesting picture. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 held for 161 days before the start of sustained growth. In 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. If history repeats itself, the correction should end with a new local low, which will become the cycle bottom. This level, in my estimation, could be in the range of $45,000 to $65,000.
My conclusion: The bitcoin market is in an "accumulation" phase. The reduction in leverage and the weakening of sellers are positive signals, but to confirm a reversal, it is necessary to see a sustained inflow of capital and an increase in funding volumes. For now, this is more of a "calm before the storm" than an asset ready for growth.