Sentiments in the cryptocurrency market have undergone a significant transformation. While fear dominated not long ago, we are now witnessing a gradual return of confidence. The key drivers of this shift have been soft macroeconomic data and positive signals in the regulatory sphere, which are creating a more favorable backdrop for digital assets.

Over the past week, bitcoin has shown steady growth, rising from levels of $63,000–$64,000 and testing the $65,000–$66,000 zone. However, consolidation above this range was not achieved—profit-taking followed, and the price pulled back somewhat. But more important than the price movement itself is the change in its nature.

Shift in Market Structure: Spot Demand Takes Center Stage

My analysis of data flows confirms: we are witnessing a fundamental shift. The rally is increasingly relying on real spot demand rather than speculative leveraged plays. Purchase volumes on major exchanges have noticeably increased. At the same time, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs are once again recording net inflows, and long-term holders are actively buying coins from short-term traders.

This is a classic sign of a healthy market: "strong hands" absorbing the supply created by weaker participants. Notably, the market is successfully absorbing selling pressure from those affected by the June decline. These investors, still under the influence of unpleasant losses, tend to sell at their entry points. The fact that the market is handling this pressure without a significant drawdown is a highly encouraging signal, indicating an improvement in market structure.

Macro Backdrop and Regulatory Winds: What Supports Optimism

Investor sentiment has noticeably improved due to a combination of factors. Soft U.S. inflation data lowers expectations for further monetary policy tightening, supporting the growth of stock markets and, consequently, cryptocurrencies. Additionally, progress in regulation—both in the U.S. and Japan—strengthens the long-term arguments in favor of digital assets.

However, I urge caution. Optimism should be tempered. The main risk I see is the growth of leverage. If the volume of open interest in futures increases without sustained spot demand, it could amplify volatility and lead to sharp movements.

Three Key Factors for the Coming Week

In the upcoming week, I will be closely monitoring three indicators:

  • Continued inflows into ETFs. This is the primary marker of institutional interest.
  • Further strengthening of spot demand. Without it, any growth will be unsustainable.
  • Bitcoin's ability to hold support in the $64,000–$66,000 zone. This is a critical level for confirming the bullish trend.

My conclusion: The market has indeed become healthier, and the shift in sentiment is a positive signal. But confirmation of a sustained bullish trend will come not from mere anticipation, but from a constant inflow of real capital. Until that happens, the risk of a correction remains. Act wisely.