A shift in sentiment is observed in the cryptocurrency market: excessive leverage is receding, and selling pressure is easing. The current situation is characterized as "neutral with a slight bullish bias." This is confirmed by data showing a decline in leverage and stabilization of exchange flows.
Inflow and Outflow Dynamics: Signs of Accumulation
Analysis of fund movements to centralized platforms shows moderate accumulation of the asset. Over the past week, the net inflow of Bitcoin amounted to approximately 2,196 BTC, while over a two-week period, an outflow of roughly 8,197 BTC is recorded. This mixed dynamic indicates a volatile phase of liquidity adjustment rather than the formation of a clear trend. Long positions maintain a slight advantage, but excessive optimism and over-leverage have significantly weakened. Meanwhile, open interest in the derivatives market is gradually recovering.
Probability of Growth and Key Indicators
Based on available data, the probability of a positive scenario for Bitcoin is estimated at around 55%. To confirm this trend, it is necessary to closely monitor funding rates and exchange flow dynamics. For now, the market is in an early stabilization phase: aggressive selling, typical of a bearish period, is gradually being absorbed, but holders are still recording more losses than profits.
Comparison with Previous Cycles
Interestingly, the current market structure resembles the previous cycle. The weekly bullish divergence in 2022 persisted for 161 days before sustained growth began. In 2026, a similar period has already lasted 147 days. The correction is expected to conclude with the formation of a new local low, which could become the cycle bottom. The potential range for this low is between $45,000 and $65,000.
It is also worth noting that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their second consecutive positive week, with a net inflow of $75.5 million for the period from July 13 to 17.
My comment: The cooling of leverage is a classic sign of a healthy correction. The market is shedding "overheating," and if exchange flows continue to show outflows, this will become a powerful signal for the start of a new upward movement. However, until key resistance levels are broken, high volatility remains.