The United States has recorded a record number of bankruptcies among large companies for the second consecutive year. In the first half of 2026, 372 large American corporations went bankrupt — the highest since 2010. The figure for the previous year was nearly identical at 371, also a record for that period. However, digging deeper reveals a far more complex and telling picture behind these alarming numbers.
Stability at the Top, Crisis at the Bottom
As my analysis, based on data from independent expert Shanaka Perera, shows, the number of bankruptcies among large companies is not skyrocketing but seems frozen at a 16-year plateau, increasing by only 0.27%. The main impact has been concentrated in three sectors: industrials (50 filings), consumer sector (35), and healthcare (26). This refers to public and large private companies, not the entire business landscape of the country.
Meanwhile, the credit market shows paradoxical dynamics. The spread on high-yield bonds narrowed from 406 basis points in March to approximately 304 by June, while the number of defaults on rated bonds fell from 63 to 50. The March peak in spreads was partly triggered by a geopolitical conflict in the Persian Gulf, but the market seems to be ignoring it.
However, descending to the level of small and medium-sized businesses reveals a radically different picture. The number of commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies rose by 28% to 4,589, while small business reorganizations surged by 50% to 1,663.
Two Worlds, Two Credit Poles
The difference between these two worlds, in my opinion, is explained by a simple factor — access to capital. Large companies with credit ratings, traded on exchanges, can refinance debt and survive. Small and private businesses with floating rates end up in bankruptcy court.
Notably, the court itself functions not as a "morgue" but as a protective barrier: debt is converted into equity, and the business continues to operate. Last year, 61.2% of bankrupt entities chose reorganization over liquidation.
The Hidden Bomb in the Government Debt Market
Special attention should be paid to a risk that almost no one discusses. As noted by Coin Bureau founder and former Goldman Sachs employee Nic Puckrin, the structure of U.S. government debt holders has undergone fundamental changes. In 2007, 75% of U.S. Treasury bonds were held by "price-insensitive" buyers — central banks, the Federal Reserve, and commercial banks. Today, their share has fallen to 52%.
The vacated space has been filled by hedge funds, which conduct leveraged transactions financed by short-term repo loans. This is where I see the main threat. When the repo market "freezes," such funds sell off securities quickly and all at once. This has happened before, in March 2020, when the Fed had to intervene to stop the collapse.
The situation is exacerbated by rising government spending. A $2 trillion annual deficit forces the issuance of more government bonds, pressuring an already fragile market. My main conclusion: the next bond market crisis will not come from yields. It will be triggered not by their price, but by whose hands these securities end up in.
Expert Opinion: The market we are observing is not a single organism but two parallel realities. While large capital basks in the glow of cheap refinancing, small businesses are suffocating. And the hidden vulnerability in the structure of government debt holders is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at the most unexpected moment. Investors should closely monitor liquidity in the repo market.