Crypto news

Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, lowering its estimate of the probability of its approval by the U.S. Senate in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop from previous expectations, reflecting growing uncertainty in the legislative process.

Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that are stalling the initiative's progress. In particular, this concerns ethical standards for public officials, as well as controversial provisions related to stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking active debates among lawmakers and require additional coordination.

Of particular concern is the time factor. After parliamentarians return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for final consideration of the bill. Given the upcoming midterm elections, the political agenda will shift toward electoral campaigns, significantly reducing the chances of a prompt decision.

In the current situation, the cryptocurrency market is showing cautious optimism, but investors must account for a high level of uncertainty. The lack of clear stablecoin regulation continues to hinder institutional adoption, and even partial progress in this direction could become a positive signal for the industry.

My analysis: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number, but a signal of systemic problems in legislative coordination. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its discussion lays the groundwork for future regulatory decisions. However, without clear timelines and political will, the market will remain in a state of uncertainty, which will continue to exert pressure on short-term prices of digital assets.