Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have significantly revised their forecasts regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects growing concern over unresolved political contradictions that continue to stall the initiative's progress.

Two aspects remain key sticking points. First, ethical standards for government officials, which are sparking heated debates among lawmakers. Second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields—an issue that divides both Republicans and Democrats and has yet to find a compromise solution.

The time factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the midterm elections begin, making it virtually impossible to hold full hearings and votes in the remaining period. The political calendar is clearly working against the bill's supporters.

It is worth noting that the CLARITY Act was seen as a potentially important step for regulating the cryptocurrency industry in the U.S., but current dynamics indicate that even under a favorable scenario, consideration of the initiative could be postponed indefinitely. The market, in turn, is already beginning to price in this heightened risk of uncertainty.

My analysis: Lowering the probability to 10% looks like a realistic assessment, given the election race and polarization in Congress. However, investors should not panic—even if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, it does not negate the long-term trend toward gradual tightening of digital asset regulation in the U.S.; it will simply be more fragmented and slower.