Galaxy Digital lowers the odds of CLARITY Act passage to 10%: political risks and a shortage of time
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This decision reflects growing concern over unresolved political contradictions that continue to stall the initiative's progress.
The key stumbling blocks remain two aspects: first, ethical standards for public officials, which are sparking disputes among lawmakers, and second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields. These issues create significant disagreements that are unlikely to be overcome in the near term.
The situation is further intensified by the factor of time. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider and pass the bill. This timeframe is extremely limited, given that midterm elections lie ahead, which will inevitably shift politicians' attention to electoral campaigns.
In my view, such a low probability assessment seems quite justified. Even if the bill gains some support, the tight schedule and pre-election dynamics create nearly insurmountable obstacles for its full consideration in the current political cycle.