Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The Russian banking sector is gearing up for the large-scale adoption of cryptocurrency operations, and, as my analysis shows, the first steps on this path will come with high fees. However, the long-term trend is clear: as the number of market players grows, spreads will inevitably tighten, approaching the levels of classic crypto exchanges.
Why initial spreads will be inflated
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor into the client price not only their own margin but also significant costs for ensuring liquidity, hedging risks, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, and in some cases, go as high as 5–7% or more. But sustaining such figures in a competitive market will not be possible: this is only a temporary measure designed to recoup initial investments.
The key factor that will determine the cost of services is not bank greed but the real price of liquidity. A client choosing a regulated banking framework must understand that they are paying for security and the legal clarity of the transaction, as well as for the difference compared to traditional fiat transfer channels.
The market, not the regulator, will set the rules
It is important to emphasize: the Bank of Russia will not dictate specific quotes for buying and selling crypto assets. Its role is to regulate access, the composition of participants, and the market architecture. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, and it is competition that will become the main catalyst for price reductions.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of attracting funds to its own balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal costs take a back seat—scale and efficiency are what matter.
The battle for the client: who will win
In my view, those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy will win this race. This is not only about qualified investors: the more liquidity providers there are and the fiercer the competition among banks, the closer prices will get to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client today is not ready to overpay just for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022: users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably expensive services. The picture is quite different for wealthy clients: with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto services in Russia is set for a rapid cooling of margins. Those who bet on a long-term strategy and the loyalty of large capital, rather than on fleeting super-profits, will take leading positions in the coming years.