Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, but financial institutions will not be able to maintain margins at 5–7% or higher amid competitive pressure. This is my conclusion, based on an analysis of market mechanisms and the experience of transactional banking and payments expert Victoria Goldenberg.
The key pricing factor is not the bank's appetite for profit, but the cost of liquidity and the client's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework. At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. This will inevitably lead to markups reaching several basis points in certain products.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
Spreads of 5–7% or higher will not be sustainable. As several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price. It will be composed of the global cost of the crypto asset, liquidity costs, hedging and infrastructure costs, as well as the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank of Russia, I believe, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that the variation in markups between different banks could be significant. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity on the bank's own balance sheet.
Who will win the race for clients
Success in this new economy will be determined not only by the size of the marketing budget, but also by the willingness to take risks for the sake of dominance. This is not just about qualified investors. The pricing mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
As practice shows, the mass client is not willing to pay for the word "bank" alone. After the stressful environment since 2022, the Russian user is open to many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. However, wealthy clients are a completely different story. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience.
The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical. I believe that the main battle will unfold over this segment, and banks that can offer a comprehensive and reliable solution will gain a decisive advantage.
My expert view: Russia's banking sector stands on the threshold of structural transformation. I expect that within the first 12–18 months after the launch of operations, spreads will stabilize at a level comparable to over-the-counter deals on classic crypto markets, and competition for large clients will lead to the emergence of tailored terms, ultimately making the market more transparent and efficient.