Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is gearing up for a new era—legal cryptocurrency operations. However, the first steps in this market will be marked by high spreads, which, nevertheless, will quickly decline under competitive pressure. My analysis of transaction banking and payment systems shows that initial markups will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but sustaining them at 5–7% or more in the long term will not be possible.
Why spreads will be high at first and then decline
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor in significant costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup can easily reach several basis points. This is an inevitable price for entering a new market from scratch.
However, in my assessment, sustainable spreads of 5–7% and above in a competitive market are a mirage. As soon as several major banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. It will be shaped by the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank of Russia will likely focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, creating fertile ground for competition.
Who will win the battle for the client
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Infrastructure and the legal framework are secondary factors that will not play a decisive role.
The key question is who will win this race. I am convinced that the advantage will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not just about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and banks participate in the game, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is not yet ready to pay simply for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not unjustifiably high service costs. However, wealthy clients are a completely different story. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. The question of whether such a client would prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My expert opinion: The market for bank crypto operations in Russia will develop according to the classic model—from high margins to competitive ones. Banks that are the first to build reliable infrastructure and offer transparent terms will take a dominant position. But there is no need to delay cost optimization: competition will not be long in coming, and those who cannot offer adequate prices will be left behind.