Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is on the brink of tectonic shifts. The first participants to begin offering legal transactions with digital assets will try to build the maximum possible margin into their quotes—up to 5–7% or higher. However, such a pricing policy is doomed to fail. As soon as several major players enter the market, spreads will begin to shrink rapidly, approaching the levels of classic exchange platforms.
The key factor that will determine the final price for the client is not bank greed, but the cost of liquidity, hedging expenses, and the creation of new infrastructure. In the first months of operation, banks will have to compensate for significant operational costs, which will inevitably be reflected in the markup. But as experience accumulates and transaction volumes grow, these costs will be amortized.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
At the start, banks will be forced to factor into the price not only direct costs, but also the cost of compliance, legal support, and technical integration. This will create an elevated margin, which, however, will not be able to hold at 5–7% under healthy competition. The market itself will regulate prices: the more liquidity providers and competing banks there are, the closer quotes will be to market levels.
It is important to understand: the regulator will not set fixed tariffs for buying or selling cryptocurrency. The central bank will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, leaving pricing to the market's discretion. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the initial stage.
Who will win the race for the client
In the new economy, the winner will be the one who can offer the best balance of price and service quality. The mass retail client, taught by stressful scenarios since 2022, is unlikely to be willing to overpay just for the word "bank." They will rather choose a proven channel, even if it is not a traditional financial institution.
The situation is quite different with wealthy clients. Large capital continues to actively migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, an investor is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and security guarantees. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—remains rhetorical.
My view as an analyst: the Russian cryptocurrency services market awaits rapid saturation, and by the end of the first year of active bank operations, spreads could shrink to 2–3%. Players who bet on technological superiority and customer loyalty, rather than short-term margins, will become the leaders of this new financial sector.