Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and, in my estimation, the key factor that will determine pricing policy will be not so much the greed of financial organizations, but rather intense competition and the cost structure. At the initial stage, spreads will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but no player will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more in the long term.
Why high spreads are inevitable at the start
At launch, banks will have to factor into the price a whole range of costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new technological infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making them comparable to over-the-counter deals. However, I do not see sustainable preconditions for maintaining such levels.
The key driver of the decline is the entry of several large banks and other regulated participants into the market. As soon as a competitive environment takes shape, margins will begin to compress rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will set the fair price. The final spread will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The role of the regulator and market mechanisms
The Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on regulating access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not interfere in setting specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially depending on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet.
Secondary factors, in my opinion, will remain infrastructure costs and the legal structure of the bank. The main thing is the ability to ensure liquidity and minimize operational risks.
Who will win the fight for the client
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The mass client today is not ready to overpay merely for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience since 2022 is such that users are willing to accept many scenarios, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to actively move between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The only question is who they will entrust their funds to—their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer seems obvious.
My conclusion: the Russian market for cryptocurrency banking services is facing a rapid cooling of prices. Those who bet on technological sophistication and honest margins, rather than administrative rent, will take leading positions within the next two quarters. Spreads of 5–7% are a temporary phenomenon that will disappear as the market becomes saturated.