Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher will not be possible amid competitive pressure. This is an inevitable market development scenario that we observe in similar financial niches.
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor into the client price not so much their own desire to profit, but rather the real cost of liquidity. Key factors will include the client's willingness to overpay for a regulated framework and the difference compared to traditional fiat transfer channels. However, this approach is not sustainable in the long term.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
At launch, banks will need to offset costs for liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. But as soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly.
It is important to understand: the spread will not be set by the regulator. The Bank of Russia will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than on specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, and the final price will be shaped by market mechanisms, not administrative directives.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the credit institution itself. Infrastructure costs and the legal structure will remain secondary factors.
Who will win the battle for the client
Success in this race will be determined not by the size of the bank, but by the willingness to invest in marketing and take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors—the battle will unfold over the mass-market user.
The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. This mechanism resembles the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Today's mass-market client is not willing to pay solely for the word "bank"—the high level of stress among the retail audience since 2022 has accustomed users to scenarios where an unjustifiably high cost of service becomes the main barrier.
The situation is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the market for bank crypto operations in Russia is headed for rapid saturation, and within the first year of active competition, we will see spreads decline to levels comparable to traditional currency pairs. Banks that bet on technological sophistication and loyalty from large clients, rather than margins from retail, will become the leaders of the new financial order.