Crypto news

RAKIB Executive Director Alexander Brazhnikov presented a mixed assessment of the Central Bank's initiative to allow Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT for exchange trading. In his view, the proposal creates a legal framework for the market, but the annual limit of 300,000 rubles for non-qualified investors turns retail access into a formality. A full-fledged market, the expert emphasizes, will be created for qualified participants — without restrictions on amounts or the list of assets.

For the mass investor, a fully legal channel for investing in cryptocurrency through domestic intermediaries appears for the first time. But the 300,000 rubles per year threshold at each broker significantly narrows the scale: most active users accustomed to turnover several times higher will likely continue operating through foreign platforms and P2P networks. Thus, the regulator creates the appearance of legalization without changing the market's real habits.

What the Central Bank's proposal changes

Today, trading digital assets in Russia relies on P2P platforms, foreign exchanges, and exchangers. This involves a whole set of risks: card blocks by banks, fraud, lack of consumer protection, as well as periodic freezes of Russians' accounts at the request of international regulators and claims from law enforcement agencies.

For the qualified investor, the picture is different. There are no restrictions on amounts or the list of assets — all cryptocurrencies admitted to trading on the exchange and over-the-counter markets are available. This opens the door to a full-fledged market for professional participants. Such a configuration, according to Brazhnikov, could serve as a signal for wealthy investors and spur an inflow of institutional capital. Transparent rules reduce uncertainty for those who previously avoided cryptocurrencies due to the risk of blocks and the unclear status of the asset.

The "gray" sector, meanwhile, has not yet received a decisive incentive to come out of the shadows. For organizations with multi-million turnovers, existing restrictions are unlikely to prove more attractive than familiar schemes.

Nevertheless, the very fact of legal infrastructure emerging, in the specialist's opinion, can reduce the uncontrolled zone of the market. Even a moderate shift of operations into the legal framework changes the proportions.

Impact on the economy

Brazhnikov associates the first effect with legalization and growth in tax revenues. A significant portion of Russians' cryptocurrency operations today passes through P2P, foreign exchanges, and exchangers, and taxes on them, if paid at all, are only partially so.

The Central Bank's project creates a legal structure with supervised intermediaries. Given market volumes, even a moderate share of transactions could bring billions of rubles in taxes to the treasury annually, while licensed brokers, exchangers, and management companies will pay income tax, VAT, and insurance premiums. Miners, who currently move to P2P, will be able to officially sell cryptocurrency through regulated intermediaries.

The second effect is a tool for cross-border settlements. The Central Bank has already confirmed its readiness to allow a limited circle of companies to use digital currencies in foreign trade operations, and the admission of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT to public circulation creates the legal basis for this.

Such a tool does not depend on SWIFT, correspondent accounts in dollars and euros, or freezes by Western regulators, which reduces costs and risks in foreign trade. Direct settlements in cryptocurrency eliminate multi-step schemes with foreign currency and offshore structures.

The third effect is the investment climate. Transparent rules attract wealthy investors, money that went abroad may remain in the Russian financial system, and an industry forms around the market — custodial services, crypto brokers, analytical platforms, management companies — creating jobs and a tax base.

Key risks

Alexander Brazhnikov names sanctions and geopolitical pressure as the first risk. Creating a cryptocurrency market in Russia will almost certainly attract the attention of Western regulators, and the expert considers the risk of secondary sanctions for Russian brokers, exchangers, and their clients quite real.

He separately highlights the use of USDT: the stablecoin issuer may freeze addresses linked to Russian companies at the request of foreign authorities. This creates a false sense of reliability for a tool that could be blocked at a critical moment.

The second risk is concentration at intermediaries. Admitting a limited number of licensed brokers and exchangers creates points of risk concentration: if such an intermediary is hacked, goes bankrupt, or commits fraud, the damage will be very large, and insurance mechanisms for crypto assets are currently absent.

The third risk, the specialist associates with the growth of fraud under the guise of legitimate actions. The official status of cryptocurrencies may be exploited by malicious actors: pseudo-brokers will appear under the guise of licensed organizations, along with schemes promising guaranteed returns, and citizens who believe in state approval will become more vulnerable.

The fourth risk is monopolization. Large players who first obtain licenses may lobby for stricter requirements for newcomers, leading to high fees, lower service quality, and in the long term, hindering industry development.

How this looks against global practice

According to Brazhnikov's assessment, Russia is building its own model, and the 300,000 rubles per year limit for non-qualified investors is its most distinctive part. In the US, EU, Brazil, South Korea, and Japan, there are no fixed limits on purchasing cryptocurrencies for citizens: protection is built through mandatory risk disclosure and regulator warnings, not through amount restrictions.

The second difference is the narrow list of assets. The requirement of a five-year price history and a list of only three assets place Russia among the most conservative countries. Even Japan, the only major economy with a "whitelist," admits dozens of assets under more flexible criteria, while the expert calls the Russian approach a deliberate rejection of nearly the entire altcoin market.

The third is the division into qualified and non-qualified investors. Brazhnikov considers this a transfer of the traditional Russian model of securities market regulation to cryptocurrencies: such a division is atypical for crypto exchanges, where a retail investor can usually buy any available cryptocurrency.

As a result, an "elite" legal market is created for large capital and a limited one for everyone else. In this form, according to Brazhnikov, it is more of an experiment dictated by the Central Bank's current policy.

The expert separately highlights the sanctions factor. Most of the mentioned countries are integrated into the global financial system, whereas for Russia, many Western exchanges have closed or restricted access, so the domestic regulated market is initially built as isolated — relying on internal liquidity and a limited circle of friendly counterparties.

My view: the Central Bank's initiative is a dual signal. On one hand, it legitimizes cryptocurrencies and creates long-awaited infrastructure, which is positive for the market. On the other, the 300,000 rubles limit and the narrow list of assets effectively preserve the "gray" sector, leaving the retail investor alone with the risks of P2P and foreign platforms. Until the regulator offers more flexible protection mechanisms without harsh restrictions, the Russian crypto market will remain niche rather than mass.