Banking spreads in Russia's crypto market: why high fees are doomed to decline
When banks in Russia begin offering cryptocurrency operations, spreads will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, it is unlikely that players will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market. The only question is how quickly market mechanisms will prevail over the initial appetites of credit institutions.
Price Formula: What Makes Up the Spread
The key factor determining the cost for the client is not the bank's desire to earn, but the aggregate of costs: the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework. At the outset, banks will have to factor all these components into the price, so in certain products the markup could reach several basis points.
However, I do not see long-term sustainability of spreads at the level of 5–7%. As soon as several major banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. The spread will be composed of the global price of the asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific bank's margin.
The Role of the Central Bank and Internal Factors
The Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on regulating access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks. Within a single organization, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity, and the cost of liquidity that the bank will have to hold on its balance sheet in significant amounts.
Infrastructure and the legal structure are secondary factors. The main thing is operational efficiency and access to liquidity.
Who Will Win the Battle for the Client
Victory will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the greatest willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is not yet ready to pay for the mere word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios just to meet their need, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is completely different for affluent clients. With an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose a bank rather than their own accountant — the question is rhetorical.
My conclusion: initially, bank spreads will be steep, but this is a temporary phenomenon. Competition and the arrival of major players will quickly bring margins down to market levels. Those who are already building infrastructure with an eye toward scaling, rather than short-term margin, will come out ahead.