Competition between banks will collapse cryptocurrency spreads in Russia: market forecast
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-fledged entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and, in my estimation, the key driver of margin reduction will be precisely competitive struggle, not regulator actions. At the start of this direction, spreads will inevitably be higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but it is unlikely that banks will be able to maintain margins at 5–7% and above in an open market environment.
Why starting spreads will be high, but not for long
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor into the client price a whole range of costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup against this backdrop could reach several basis points, which is quite understandable from the perspective of launch economics.
However, such spreads will not be sustainable. As soon as several large banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink at a rapid pace. The market, not the regulator, will become the main arbiter of pricing. The final spread will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank of Russia, apparently, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, rather than on setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly among different banks, and it is precisely this diversity that will become the breeding ground for a price war.
Who will win the fight for the client
In this race, the advantage will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for the sake of dominating the new economy. This is not only about professional investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
Today's mass client is not ready to overpay simply for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022, and the user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service. Large capital, on the contrary, continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. And here, the question of whom such a client will prefer — their own accountant or a Russian bank — is rhetorical.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to build an efficient liquidity model and do not try to compensate for infrastructure costs at the client's expense will capture the lion's share of the market. Spreads of 5–7% are a temporary phenomenon, and already in the medium term we will see them compress to a level comparable to over-the-counter platforms.