The market will decide: why bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are doomed to decline
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher will not be possible under conditions of healthy competition. This is not mere speculation, but a natural outcome of the development of any new financial market.
Why High Spreads Are Only a Temporary Phenomenon
At the outset, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price for the client: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup may indeed reach several basis points, which will deter the mass consumer.
However, a sustained spread of 5–7% is an anomaly that will disappear as the market becomes saturated. As soon as several major banks and other regulated players enter the field, margins will begin to compress at a rapid pace. The market itself will set prices, and the regulator is not the arbiter here. The final spread will be shaped by the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, and the operational expenses of each specific bank.
It is important to understand: the Central Bank of Russia will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than on directive quotations. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially in the first months of operation.
Who Will Win the Battle for the Client
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet. Secondary factors, such as the legal structure and IT infrastructure, take a back seat. Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy.
It is telling that the mass client is not willing to overpay merely for the word "bank." Since 2022, the level of trust in retail financial institutions has changed: the user accepts many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. With an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, they are willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a lack of problems. The only question is who they will entrust their funds to—their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer is obvious.
My forecast: the pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administrative tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition, the closer prices will be to market levels. The first players who bet on aggressive dumping to gain market share will set the tone for the entire industry.