Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, which will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, as my analysis of market mechanisms shows, no player will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive field. The market itself will set the record straight.
The key factor that will determine the final price for the client is not the bank's appetite for excess profits, but a combination of objective costs. This includes the cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. It is these parameters, not the greed of financial institutions, that will form the foundation of pricing.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant expenses into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. However, I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly.
It is important to understand: the spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator. It will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin. The central bank, in turn, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the outset.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity on the balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors; they will not be decisive in the fight for the client.
Who will win the race for the user
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. Moreover, this applies not only to qualified investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the sharper the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the mere word "bank." This is linked to the high level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is a rhetorical question.
My verdict: the market for bank crypto services in Russia is headed for rapid price equalization. The first players will try to monetize the supply shortage, but this will not last long. Competition and large clients who will not tolerate predatory spreads will force banks to reduce margins to a level comparable to traditional financial instruments.