Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher amid competitive pressure will not be possible. I arrive at this conclusion by analyzing the current market configuration and the behavior of its key players.
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor into the client price not so much their own desire to profit, but rather real costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which is quite understandable from the perspective of return on investment.
Why spreads will first rise and then decline
I expect that in the first months spreads will be elevated—this is a natural market reaction to uncertainty and the need to cover operating expenses. However, figures such as 5–7% and higher will not be sustainable. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly.
It is important to understand: the spread is shaped by the market, not the regulator. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin. The Bank of Russia, in turn, will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity that the bank itself is forced to hold on its balance sheets. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors, although significant.
Who will win the battle for the client
The winner in this race will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors.
The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff. The mass client is currently not willing to pay for the mere word "bank." This is linked to the level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is a rhetorical question.
My conclusion: the market for banking crypto operations in Russia is set for a rapid cooling of margins. Banks that bet on technological sophistication and speed of service for large clients, rather than on inflated spreads, will take a dominant position within the next 12–18 months.