UBS increased its bet on bitcoin's rise 24-fold through call options on ETFs.
Switzerland's largest bank, UBS, is showing a confident bullish signal regarding the first cryptocurrency. According to my analysis of fresh regulatory data, by June 30, the bank's exposure to call options on BlackRock's bitcoin ETF IBIT shares soared to 1.95 million shares — 24 times more than the 80,000 shares a quarter earlier.
Such a surge in purchase derivatives is not just a speculative gesture. It is a clear indicator of institutional appetite for protection against potential asset price growth. UBS's direct position in the ETF itself also increased by 12% over the quarter, reaching 407,890 shares, equivalent to approximately $13.6 million at current market quotes. Notably, the bank simultaneously reduced its protective "bearish" bets: the volume of put options decreased by 53%, to 143,300 shares.
This dynamic suggests a revision of the risk profile toward aggressive accumulation. If UBS previously used options primarily for hedging, now the portfolio structure is clearly shifted in favor of playing for growth. Given that IBIT is one of the most liquid instruments for accessing bitcoin on the traditional market, UBS's actions could serve as a leading indicator for other conservative players.
The reduction of puts amid rising calls creates an asymmetric return profile: the bank has almost completely removed insurance against a crash but is actively hedging against missed gains. This is a bold decision, especially amid volatility driven by macroeconomic uncertainty. In my understanding, UBS either possesses insider information about upcoming institutional inflows or simply believes in a long-term scenario of bitcoin consolidating above key levels.
Observing this trend, I do not rule out that in the coming quarters, other banks with conservative reputations will follow UBS's example. Of course, options positions are only part of the overall picture, but their sharp transformation over such a short period deserves close attention from any analyst tracking the movement of "smart money."