Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: high margins at the start and competitive pressure
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first months of this activity will be characterized by elevated spreads. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in the face of growing competition will be practically impossible.
Why spreads will be high at first, then decline
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price for the client. This refers to the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new technological infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making them comparable to a premium for a regulated framework.
Nevertheless, I see no prerequisites for the long-term maintenance of spreads at the 5–7% level. As soon as several large banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price. In my understanding, it will consist of the global cost of the crypto asset, liquidity and hedging costs, as well as the margin of a specific bank, depending on its operational efficiency.
The Central Bank, in my estimation, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed quotes. This means that across different banks, the markup may vary significantly, especially in the first months.
Who will win the battle for the client
The key success factor will be not so much the size of the bank, but the willingness to invest in marketing and the ability to take risks for the sake of dominance in the new economy. Victory will go to those who can offer the client the best balance of price and quality.
The mass retail client today is not willing to overpay just for the word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has remained high since 2022: the user agrees to many scenarios, but not to an unjustifiably high cost of service. However, affluent clients present a different picture. Large capital continues to actively move between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client does not care who provides the service—their own accountant or a Russian bank. The question is, in essence, rhetorical.
My conclusion: the banking cryptocurrency market in Russia faces a rapid cooling of margins. The first players will be able to profit from client unawareness, but within a year, competition will bring prices to a market level close to global benchmarks. Those who build efficient infrastructure in advance and can offer clients real value, not just regulated status, will win.