Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia.
Russian banks, preparing to launch cryptocurrency operations, will initially set inflated spreads for clients. However, as the realities of a market economy show, they will not be able to maintain a margin of 5–7% or higher in a competitive field. The question is only how quickly this reduction will occur and who will be the first to make concessions.
At the start, a high markup is inevitable. Financial institutions will have to factor into the cost the expenses for liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new technological infrastructure. In certain products, this margin could reach several basis points, making the first months of operation especially profitable for banks but extremely disadvantageous for consumers.
Why spreads are doomed to decline
A sustainable spread of 5–7% is an anachronism that will not withstand a collision with real competition. As new players enter the market—both large banks and regulated non-banking structures—the margin will begin to shrink at a high rate. The market, not the regulator, will act as the main arbiter in price formation. Ultimately, the spread will be composed of the global cost of the crypto asset, the price of liquidity, hedging costs, and the operational infrastructure of a specific bank.
Notably, the Bank of Russia will not set directive quotes for buying and selling. Its role is to control access, determine the composition of participants, and build market infrastructure. This means that markups will vary significantly across different banks, and within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet.
Who will win the fight for the client
In the new economy, victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for the sake of dominance. The mass client, tired of the stress and uncertainty since 2022, is no longer ready to overpay simply for the word "bank." They seek reliability, but not at any price. The only exception will be wealthy users: with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, large capital is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems with fund transfers.
In this context, the pricing mechanism will resemble more of a currency market than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the tougher the competition between banks, the closer prices will be to fair market values.
My conclusion: The Russian banking sector is entering a phase where cryptocurrency spreads will become an indicator of business model efficiency. Those who bet on technological advancement and client orientation, rather than on monopoly markup, will take leading positions for years to come.